Syria is rebuilding its electricity sector with more than $10 billion already pledged for generation, transmission and exploration, much of it from Gulf countries. But money is not its only advantage.
Syria has something potentially more valuable – hindsight.
Its neighbours have already spent decades testing different approaches to electricity reform. Jordan’s experience, in particular, offers Syria a practical record of what worked, what did not and what proved more expensive than expected.
The choices Syria makes now will shape its electricity system for decades. Getting them right from the beginning could save enormous costs later.
Over the past two decades, Jordan moved from a predominantly state-owned electricity sector to a system combining an independent regulator, private generators, a state-owned transmission company and private distribution companies.
One of its clearest lessons is that responsibilities matter. Policy, regulation, transmission and commercial operations need to be separated.
Jordan’s independent Energy and Minerals Regulatory Commission licenses operators, sets tariffs and enforces technical standards, while the state-owned National Electric Power Company operates the system and transmission network. That combination – independent regulation alongside public control of the grid’s backbone – helped give private investors confidence.
Syria should take note.
Private capital, carefully
But Jordan’s experience also shows why privatisation should never become a goal in itself.
Private investment brought capital, expertise and efficiency into generation and distribution. It also reduced the burden on the state to finance every project. Yet long-term contracts created obligations that can ultimately fall on consumers and the public utility when demand forecasts, fuel prices or technology costs change.
For Syria, the message is straightforward: welcome private capital, but on the right terms.
Projects should be competitively tendered and transparent. Contracts should be flexible enough to respond to changing technology and market conditions. The government should retain strong control over system planning even as private companies compete to develop clearly defined projects.
Above all, Syria should resist locking itself into decades-long commitments simply because money is available today.
Renewable energy offers another important lesson.
Jordan moved early into solar and wind and demonstrated that large-scale renewables could work successfully in the region. But it also invested when those technologies were considerably more expensive. Some early projects secured relatively high tariffs, pushing up average electricity costs compared with what similar projects could achieve later.
Syria should move quickly on renewables – but not recklessly.
Competitive auctions and flexible procurement can help it benefit as technology costs fall. Storage and grid flexibility should also be designed into the system from the start rather than added later when intermittent generation begins putting pressure on the network.
The same thinking should apply to rooftop and distributed solar.
Jordan’s net-metering and wheeling arrangements helped consumers and businesses generate their own electricity. But as more users produced their own power, maintaining the grid increasingly depended on a continuously shrinking pool of conventional consumers.
Syria can avoid that imbalance by ensuring tariffs and wheeling charges reflect the true cost of the network. Net metering should encourage solar investment without shifting an unfair burden on consumers who cannot install it. Smart meters and time-of-use tariffs can help.
Think beyond borders
Yet perhaps Syria’s biggest opportunity lies beyond its borders.
Its electricity grid should be designed from the outset as part of a regional network, not merely as national infrastructure.
The Jordan-Syria interconnection now being rehabilitated is an obvious starting point and, through Jordan, can provide a route towards the Gulf grid. But Syria should think bigger, developing connections with Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and other regional systems where technically and economically feasible.
Interconnection is about much more than emergency electricity supplies. Countries can trade surplus renewable power, balance changes in demand, improve reliability and reduce the amount of generation capacity each needs to maintain alone. And building those corridors now will be far cheaper than retrofitting them later.
Jordan’s experience gives Syria a rare chance to build with the benefit of hindsight. That means putting the right institutions in place from day one: an independent regulator, transparent procurement and a financially credible transmission and system operator. Private investment should be welcomed, but on carefully structured terms, while renewable energy is bought through competition and net-metering and wheeling rules protect the grid’s finances. Just as importantly, Syria should build a transmission network ready to connect with its neighbours and trade power across the region.
Jordan’s experience should not be copied wholesale. Its value lies precisely in the mixture of successes, trade-offs and mistakes.
Syria can take the successes without having to pay again for the mistakes.
The goal should not simply be to restore the electricity system Syria once had. It should be to build the one it will need for the next 30 years.
If Syria gets the institutions, market design and regional connections right from the beginning, it can move faster and attract more investment.
More importantly, it can avoid paying tomorrow for decisions made today.
Hala Zawati is the former Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Jordan. Dr Wissam Rabadi is the former Minister of Planning and International Co-operation of Jordan.