Worldwide trade exceeded a “record” US$35tn last year, as the demand for AI products remained a key driver of goods trade despite geopolitical volatility.
According to a report from the United Nation’s trade and development arm, the global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, amid conflict in the Middle East, soaring oil prices and rising inflation.
Overall, trade in goods and services is on course to grow by around 4% in 2026, marking a “mild deceleration” compared to last year’s 4.4%, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.
This is due to the ongoing growth in digital and AI infrastructure, with data centres a “source of growth dynamism”.
“Artificial intelligence products, comprising advanced computing equipment deployed largely in new data centres, are now the main driver of merchandise trade,” the report said in its annual Trade and Development Report.
In 2025, the value of trade in AI products rose by 22% to US$4.2tn, representing 42% of total global merchandise trade growth in nominal terms.
The report’s forecast for 2026 was an improvement on its prediction in May, when it warned that global merchandise trade growth was expected to fall to between 1.5% and 2.5% this year.
Its current report notes that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by around 4.5% to 5% in 2026, which it said was on a par with last year’s growth.
Yet if the demand for AI products tempers, UNCTAD suggested that services trade growth could outpace that of goods in 2027.
UNCTAD recently released a report on services trade, finding that the growing use of services across all sectors means they should also be viewed as critical for goods exports.
So far, predictions of economic fragmentation have also largely failed to materialise, with “new trade patterns and production networks” creating opportunities for developing nations.
Despite policy uncertainty and higher levels of geopolitical risk stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, “risk perceptions have receded as decision makers adapt based on new realities”, UNCTAD said.
But a broader picture of resilience is hiding significant differences between countries, the report found.
Gaps are increasing between developing and developed markets, with just a few rapidly growing economies in Asia, such as China and India, keeping pace with the average GDP per person in developed countries.
With these economies stripped out, the average GDP per person in developing economies is continuing to diverge from that of developed economies.
In 2026, Asia is forecast to provide 59% of global GDP growth, concentrated in East Asia.
“Only a few economies are benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, and the divide compounds longstanding structural challenges – financialisation, inequality, diminishing fiscal space and climate change,” the report said.
This year, developing economies are expected to grow by 4%, compared to 4.7% last year, suggesting that global resilience is “fragile and uneven”. The GDP of developed economies is only projected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, but from a higher baseline.
Global GDP growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2026, following three years at a steady 2.9%.
“Apart from a handful of Asian economies, most of the Global South is falling further behind,” the report said.
UNCTAD attributed this to the rise of “geoeconomics”, defined as “states using trade, finance and technology to pursue strategic ends, above all, in sectors they deem critical to national security and technological leadership”.
This includes vital sectors and goods such as semiconductors and AI infrastructure.
Geoeconomics is characterised by “the blurring of lines between economic and national security”, the growing influence of geopolitics in how trade networks are configured, and the decreasing role of “institutional stabilisers within the multilateral system”.
As a result, the traditional way for developing economies to achieve higher incomes – via industrialisation, merchandise trade and integration into global value chains – is now a less reliable method, explained Pedro Manuel Moreno, acting secretary-general of UNCTAD.
Instead, the opportunities for growth are now in higher-value sectors such as AI and clean technologies, but the barriers to entering these sectors are high.
“Developed economies capture around 70% of greenfield investment in all of them except critical minerals, where developing economies lead but struggle to add value,” Moreno noted.
However, some economies in the Global South “are becoming regional anchors, extending trade integration to new financial initiatives”, said Moreno.
This includes Brazil’s extension of Pix, an instant payment system, across South America. These initiatives can “extend what national policy can achieve” and give developing economies the chance to take the lead in reshaping regional co-operation, UNCTAD said.