We kick of the month of July with some nice solar activity! Sunspot region 4479 has been growing nicely and is now a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta region which yesterday at 20:50 UTC erupted with an X1.1 (R3-strong) solar flare. The solar flare was eruptive and launched a coronal mass ejection into space.
We also need to monitor sunspot region 4478 as it also has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout but it is actually even more complex than sunspot region 4479. This complex magnetic layout with multiple delta spots resulted in numerous M-class events today already.
Earth-directed coronal mass ejection and moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watch
But back to the X1.1 flare. The flare was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps confirming the CME launch. On coronagraph imagery from SOHO/LASCO we see the CME with a very faint halo outline. The ejection is clearly heading north of the Sun-Earth line with a minimal earth-directed component. We believe the impact at Earth will be a glancing blow at best with perhaps not the most spectacular geomagnetic conditions as a result.
We of course realize that this view from us contradicts the official forecast which calls for an impact on 3 July (Friday) with storm conditions up to the G2 geomagnetic storm level. Solar wind models call for much more of a head-on impact which we find surprising. We do however hope the solar wind models are correct on this one and we get a nice impact on 3 July, but do not be too surprised if the impact is not as strong as expected by the official agencies.
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery shows the X1.1 coronal mass ejection (CME). A clear northward eruption can be seen with a faint halo outline.