By Thuto Masasa
As the global scramble for critical minerals intensifies, conversations about mineral sovereignty are moving to centre stage.
Across Africa, governments are increasingly insisting on a greater say over strategic minerals, including through proposals to give the state a right of pre-emption before these resources are sold. There are also growing calls for greater local beneficiation, rather than continuing to rely on the export of unprocessed raw minerals.
For decades, Africa has exported raw minerals only to buy back higher-value products manufactured elsewhere. Much of the continent has therefore remained at the bottom of the value chain, a supplier of resources and a buyer of finished goods. The global race for critical minerals gives African countries, including South Africa, an opportunity to challenge that model.
This is not a theoretical opportunity. The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that strategic sectors — including AI infrastructure, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy-transition technologies — accounted for 44% of global greenfield investment in 2025, up from 16% in 2020. Africa attracted approximately US$70 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, its third-highest level since 1990. Yet UNCTAD also cautions that investment and its benefits remain concentrated in relatively few countries and sectors.
At the same time, African leaders are increasingly calling for critical minerals to become catalysts for industrialisation, local value addition, regional value chains and job creation, particularly for young people and women.
The direction is clear. The harder question is execution. It is easy to say Africa should beneficiate its minerals. It is, however, harder to build the competitive industrial ecosystem required to do so. Processing and manufacturing require reliable energy, water, rail and ports, technology, skills, capital, regulatory certainty and access to markets. Above all, they require scale.
That should force us to think beyond national borders. For example, it may not be economically feasible for every African country to invest in all stages of the mineral value chain domestically. But it could be entirely rational for African countries to build these value chains regionally.
One country may have the mineral resource. Another may have processing capability. Another may provide manufacturing expertise, finance, logistics or technology. This is where the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) could become far more than a trade agreement. It can and should also form part of the continent’s industrial architecture.
For too long, the success of a mining investment has been measured primarily through production volumes, exports, tax contributions and direct employment. These remain important. But the critical-minerals era demands a broader definition of value. For example, we need to quantify how many local suppliers were created; how much technical capability was transferred; how many engineers, data scientists and artisans were developed; how much processing took place locally or regionally; and how much infrastructure created for mining also strengthened the productive capacity of surrounding economies. And, ultimately, how much of the value created by Africa’s resources remained on the continent?
Mining can be more than an extractive industry. Done differently, it can become an industrial platform. Africa should also recognise the strategic position it currently occupies. Global supply chains are being reconsidered. On one hand, governments want greater security of mineral supply, and on the other, businesses want diversified sources while investors are searching for strategic assets.
This gives mineral-rich African economies leverage. But windows of leverage do not remain open indefinitely. Technology changes, supply chains adjust, substitution becomes possible, and new deposits are discovered.
The continent therefore cannot afford another decade of debating the imperative of value addition. Rather, the priority should now focus on execution. This requires bankable projects, enabling infrastructure, regional coordination, credible policy and partnerships capable of mobilising capital at scale. And those partnerships must be negotiated from a position of ambition rather than dependency.
There is another dimension to this opportunity: Africa’s young people. A mineral boom that does not build future skills could ultimately become another missed opportunity. The next mining economy will require far more than traditional mining expertise. It will demand advanced engineering, renewable-energy capability, automation, data analytics, artificial intelligence, logistics, environmental science, finance and sophisticated supply-chain management.
The challenge, therefore, is not simply to create more mining jobs. Rather, it is to create a new generation of African industrial capability.
Africa has spent decades telling the world what lies beneath its soil. The next chapter should therefore be about what Africa is capable of building above it. The true measure of Africa’s critical-minerals success will not be how much the world extracts from the continent. It will be how much economic capability Africa builds because the world needs what we have.
Thuto Masasa, National Head of Advisory, BDO South Africa