The October update to the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report highlights contributions of AI-related trade.
On 8 October, the World Trade Organization (WTO) published its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. The report raises the forecast for world merchandise trade volume to 3.9% growth in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, and to 4.1% in 2027. Commercial services trade volume is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from the earlier forecast of 4.8%, before increasing to 6.4% in 2027. The revision reflects evidence that investment in artificial intelligence (AI)‑related infrastructure boosted trade in AI‑enabling goods, despite effects in other sectors due to conflict in the Middle East. In the updated data, demand for AI‑enabling goods, such as semiconductors – or ‘AI chips’ – and servers, accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth and trade in AI-enabling goods increased by 67% year‑on‑year.
According to the WTO, global AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026, with further capital‑expenditure growth of 10‑20% expected in 2027. Reflecting on the results, WTO Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala commented, ‘not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI. It is essential to ensure that the rules‑based trading system continues to absorb shocks and bridge gaps so that opportunities are open to all’.
Digitally delivered services also remained resilient: computer‑services exports rose by 18 % year‑on‑year in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second quarter, while financial‑services exports grew by 14 % year‑on‑year in the second quarter. Europe is expected to record the fastest export growth in services in 2026 at 4.6%, followed by Asia at 4.0% and Africa at 3.1%. The full report, detailed trade statistics, and interactive tools are available on the WTO Stats portal.
Why does it matter?
The report includes an analytical chapter on AI‑enabling goods, examining how AI investment is reshaping trade patterns, regional specialisation, and the geography of AI-related trade.
