The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 to 3.9%, a significant jump from its previous 1.9% projection made in March. The upward revision is primarily driven by surging investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and adaptable supply chains, which have successfully cushioned economic shocks from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
AI investments drive trade growth and offset regional conflict
Global merchandise trade grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, outperforming initial WTO expectations. Despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that impacted energy supplies and raised prices for fuel and fertilizers, economies outside the Middle East have demonstrated strong resilience. Global crude oil exports fell by only 6%, liquefied natural gas dropped by 1%, and global container shipping volumes actually increased by 3.9% during the first seven months of 2026.
At the same time, strong global demand linked to AI expansion has acted as a powerful counterweight. Trade in semiconductors, servers, and other AI-critical hardware surged 67% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, accounting for 47% of total global merchandise trade growth.
WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger noted that the organization was surprised both by the limited trade impact of the Middle East conflict and the extraordinary strength of AI investment. Global spending on AI infrastructure is projected to jump by at least 30% this year, with expected further growth of 10% to 20% in 2027.