BYLINE: Marya Barlow
Newswise — Farmers are producing more. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that globally, they’re using more land, fertilizer, machinery, and other resources to do it.
For farmers, that can mean higher production costs and greater financial risk. For consumers, those costs can contribute to higher prices for food, clothing, pharmaceuticals, and other products that begin on farms. And for the natural resources we depend on, it means added strain on land, water, and soil.
New data from Virginia Tech’s 2026 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report point to the underlying problem: Global agricultural productivity growth is slowing. From 2015-24, productivity grew just 0.63 percent annually, its slowest rate in 50 years.
Tom Thompson and Jessica Agnew of Virginia Tech’s Global Agricultural Productivity Initiative explain what the slowdown means, how the United States compares, and what it could take to reverse the trend.
Agricultural productivity is still growing. So why is that a concern?
Thompson: Agricultural productivity is how much farmers produce compared with the resources they use. Growth is good because it means producing more without simply using more. The concern is the pace.
At today’s productivity growth rate, agriculture won’t produce enough to meet projected 2050 demand without using substantially more land and other resources. The difference has to come from somewhere — more land, more inputs, or supply that falls short of demand.
Why does the slowdown matter for consumers?
Agnew: We can feel it in our wallets. When producing more requires farmers to use more resources, those additional costs can contribute to higher prices for consumers. And the effects extend beyond the grocery store. Agriculture supplies raw materials for products ranging from restaurant meals and clothing to pharmaceuticals and fuel. Slower productivity growth can ripple through all of those supply chains.
What do the new numbers show about U.S. agriculture?
Agnew: There is an important bright spot in the U.S. numbers. Over the past decade, all growth in U.S. agricultural output came from productivity gains, while the total use of land, labor, capital, fertilizer, and feed declined. In other words, U.S. farmers produced more while using fewer total inputs.
The concern is that those efficiency gains have slowed considerably. U.S. agricultural productivity grew 0.63 percent annually from 2015-24, compared with 2.09 percent annually in the 1980s. As demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel grows, the challenge is to accelerate productivity without reversing course and relying on more land and other resources to increase production.
What’s causing the slowdown?
Thompson: There isn’t just one cause. Public investment in agricultural research has declined, farmers face barriers to adopting proven technologies, gains from conventional inputs are leveling off, and climate stress is making production more difficulty in many places. Research investment is especially important because it can take years or even decades for a scientific discovery to become a technology or practice that farmers can use. Some of the productivity slowdown we’re seeing today reflects investment decisions made years ago.
What could turn this around?
Thompson: Governments, research institutions, industry, and other agricultural partners need to invest in research and innovation — and make sure those advances reach farmers.
Developing a new technology isn’t enough if farmers can’t afford it, access it, or use it effectively. That means pairing innovation with financing, training, infrastructure, policies, and other support that allow producers to put proven technologies and practices to work.
The right investments will differ by place, crop, and production system. The challenge is identifying where particular investments can make the greatest difference.
How can decision-makers know where those investments can have the greatest impact?
Agnew: That’s been difficult because the data needed to make those decisions have been scattered across national statistics, farm surveys, satellite archives, and other sources that weren’t built to work together. We’ve worked with Google Public Sector and Appnovation to bring six decades of global agricultural data together in GAP IQ™, a free, open platform. It allows governments, researchers, investors, and others to compare countries and regions and explore how investments in areas such as research, farmer training, irrigation, and soil health could affect productivity.
Experts available
Tom Thompson, director of CALS Global and executive editor of the Global Agricultural Productivity Report, can speak about global agricultural productivity, agricultural research and innovation, and the connections among farm productivity, food security, sustainability, and resilience.
Jessica Agnew, director of the Global Agricultural Productivity Initiative and associate director of CALS Global, is a global food systems expert whose work focuses on agricultural productivity, agri-food systems, technological innovation, and strategies to spur investment and action in agricultural productivity growth.