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First Solar (FSLR) and NVIDIA are both classed in the semiconductor industry, but First Solar sells solar panels and NVIDIA sells chips for AI data centers. Investors have chosen NVIDIA, whose stock returned 24% in the past year, while First Solar lost 22%. But NVIDIA is short of supply, and its memory costs are rising. Did the two companies’ latest forecasts back that choice?
NVIDIA Forecast More Growth, First Solar Repeated A Forecast
NVIDIA’s latest forecast backed that choice, and so far NVIDIA is growing even with supply short. On its August 26, 2026 call, management said it expects revenue of $108 billion for fiscal Q3 2027, plus or minus 2%. NVIDIA reported $96 billion for fiscal Q2, so the company is forecasting more growth from one quarter to the next.
Management also forecast a full year ahead, which it said it had never done before. It expects revenue to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028, a figure it called preliminary and limited by supply. Management expects supply to stay a bottleneck at least through the end of that year.
First Solar’s full-year forecast was a repeat. In its July 30, 2026 release, management affirmed its forecast for 2026 net sales of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. So you learned that First Solar’s plan is intact, not that its sales are speeding up.
NVIDIA Expects A Lower Gross Margin
NVIDIA does not expect its gross margin to hold. It was 75% in fiscal Q2 2027, and management expects 74% for Q3. Management then expects margins to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4, and it blamed the price of memory, which rose more than NVIDIA had expected.
NVIDIA is also funding some of its own customers: it has invested nearly $50 billion in AI labs.
First Solar’s own spending plan did not change. Management expects capital spending of $800 million to $1 billion in 2026, and still expects to end the year with about $2 billion of net cash.
How First Solar And NVIDIA Compare Head To Head
NVIDIA comes out ahead on most measures. NVIDIA stock trades at 29.3 times trailing earnings, against 10.75 times for First Solar. NVIDIA’s revenue grew 83% over the past twelve months, while First Solar’s grew 24%. NVIDIA’s operating margin is 65%, against 34% for First Solar.
In its latest quarter, First Solar’s revenue fell 3.7% from a year earlier, while NVIDIA’s more than doubled.
First Solar is ahead on debt, though narrowly: its debt is 0.1% of its market value, against 0.7% for NVIDIA.
So NVIDIA leads on the earnings multiple, growth and operating margin, while First Solar leads on debt. NVIDIA is still growing despite short supply, but its gross margin is already expected to fall. NVIDIA is expected to report fiscal Q3 on or around November 17. Revenue clearly below its $108 billion forecast would be the first sign that NVIDIA’s growth lead is narrowing.