America’s next grocery-price shock could begin long before shoppers notice it – when a farmer decides how much fertilizer to buy, which crop to plant or whether planting remains affordable.
Disrupted trade and extreme weather could raise food costs in the coming months.
However, the forecasts cited here do not establish that nationwide US shortages are imminent. For American households, the prime concern is how to afford the food price hike: how pressures on farms could eventually reach the checkout.
Are US grocery prices expected to rise in 2027?Yes. The US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service said September 25, 2026 that it expects average grocery prices to rise 2.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
Slower inflation still means prices are going up; it doesn’t mean groceries return to their earlier prices.
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And the 2027 forecast interval is a drop of 5% to a rise of 9.2% – a huge range of uncertainty.
The ERS’s 2026 retail forecasts also show uneven pressures:Beef and veal: up 9.4%.Sugar and sweets: up 6.6%.Fresh vegetables: up 5.7%.Non-alcoholic beverages: up 4.2%.Fresh fruits: up 2.5%.This is to note that these are annual average price changes, not additional increases from today’s shelf prices. Nor should every increase be attributed to fertilizer disruption as individual categories face different production, supply and demand conditions.
A global supply shock can also have unequal consequences. Some households may face higher bills; people already unable to afford sufficient food face a more immediate threat to their nutrition.
When could fertilizer disruption reach the checkout?The effects can take months, with no single starting date for every crop or grocery item.
Farmers may pay more for to afford expensive fertilizer, reduce its usage or change crops. Those decisions can affect later harvests. Processing, inventories and retail arrangements further influence when-and how much-consumers feel the change.
JPMorgan also identifies natural-gas availability as a constraint on synthetic nitrogen-fertilizer production. Restoring shipping alone may therefore be insufficient to restore supply.
“We are deeply worried about the lag effects this will have on upcoming harvest,” World Food Programme (WFP) acting executive director Carl Skau told the UN Security Council on August 25, 2026.
Which trade routes and weather risks matter?The World Food Programme points out three shipping vulnerabilities for such crisis, they are:Strait of Hormuz: Disruption impacts fuel, gas and fertilizer flowsBlack Sea: Exports from Russia and Ukraine affectedBab el-Mandeb: Commercial ships being targeted causing disruption in Red Sea route connecting Suez Canal.These pressures can raise transport costs and restrict agricultural supplies far beyond the conflict zones. Weather could compound the problem.
On September 10, 2026, NOAA evaluated the probability of a very strong El Niño developing throughout the fall and winter of 2026-27 in the Northern Hemisphere at greater than 90%.
What are other countries saying about the impending crisis?International warnings point to overlapping pressures on food supplies, although their scope differs.
Speaking at the Asia Society in New York on September 28, 2026, India’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, connected disrupted grain shipments, fertilizer shortages and El Niño with worsening risks for developing economies. “There is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months,” he said, according to reporting of the event.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the Security Council on August 25, 2026: “Critical food systems – and the lives and livelihoods they sustain-are under attack.”
The International Rescue Committee added an affordability warning on September 18, 2026. “Food, fuel and fertilizer are getting harder and more expensive to move, right when the world’s poorest countries can least afford it,” said Bob Kitchen, its vice president of emergencies.
Can Washington protect the next harvest?On September 23, 2026, Senators Chuck Schumer and Amy Klobuchar introduced legislation that would require a USDA feasibility study and provide for a strategic fertilizer reserve, subject to the agriculture secretary’s approval following that study.
The proposal itself does not create an immediately available stockpile. Its study-report deadline would be 180 days after funding becomes available.
When fertilizer prices spike, farmers get squeezed, planting decisions get harder, and eventually families feel it at the grocery store,” Schumer said. Republicans have also backed responses. John Thune supported fertilizer-price transparency legislation, while Roger Marshall joined Klobuchar on a domestic production and storage proposal.
These measures address resilience, but do not establish that protection will arrive before the next harvest.
What could prevent the worst outcomes?Improved shipping, restored fertilizer production and favorable harvests elsewhere could ease pressure. Discussing the 2023-24 El Niño phase, JPMorgan says US and Indian wheat crops grew while Australian and Chinese harvests declined.
A ceasefire could help ease current pressures, although damaged facilities and missed agricultural windows could delay recovery.
SourcesUSDA, September 25, 2026JPMorgan, May 21, 2026WFP briefing, August 25, 2026NOAA, September 10, 2026Senate reserve proposal, September 23, 2026Bipartisan fertilizer legislation, March 19, 2026FAQsIs the US facing a food shortage in 2027 – or higher grocery prices?The cited forecasts do not establish imminent nationwide shortages.US Department of Agriculture projects 1.8% rise in average grocery prices in 2027, while worldwide warnings show risks that could disturb the supplies.By when will fertilizer shortage begin affecting US grocery bills?The effects may take several months to show up as decisions on planting affect harvests and food production. Timing varies by crop, inventories, processing and retail arrangements. Higher fertilizer costs do not necessarily mean a physical shortage in every market.Should Americans stockpile food because of global food – crisis warnings?The evidence presented does not establish a need for stockpiling or panic buying. Households should follow official local emergency – preparedness guidance rather than treat uncertain global forecasts as confirmation that US food supplies will become unavailable.
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